Corn, soybean stocks fall, but top estimates
The USDA says corn, soybean, and wheat stocks on September 1st, 2021 were down sharply from September 1st, 2020. This is effectively the carryover estimate for 2020/21 corn, sorghum, and soybeans, but further revisions are likely. The 2021/22 marketing year started June 1st for wheat and September 1st for beans, corn, and sorghum.
Corn was reported at 1.237 billion bushels, a drop of 36% on the year, but above what analysts were expecting ahead of the report, as a year-to-year decline in fourth quarter use, 2.87 billion bushels for 2020/21 compared to 3.08 billion for 2019/20, likely to due to higher prices, which canceled out a downward revision to the 2020 production total. On-farm stocks were 394.9 million bushels, a decline of 47%, with off-farm stocks at 841.581 million bushels, 28% lower.
Soybeans came out at 256.179 million bushels, 51% less than a year ago, but also above pre-report projections due to slower fourth quarter use, 513 million bushels, a decrease of 40%, and an upward revision to 2020 production. On-farm stocks were 68.1 million bushels, 52% lower, and off-farm stocks were 188.079 million bushels, down 51%.
Wheat stocks of 1.8 billion bushels were 18% lower, falling below the average estimate thanks to better than expected first quarter demand, at 711 million bushels, up 2%. On-farm stocks were 419.19 million bushels, a drop of 41%, and off-farm stocks were 1.361 billion bushels, 6% lower.
Sorghum stock were pegged at 20.346 million bushels, 32% under last year with a smaller crop cancelling out slower use at 20.6 million bushels during the fourth quarter of the marketing year, 51% lower. On-farm stocks were 588,000 bushels, a drop of 80%, with off-farm stocks at 19.758 million bushels, a decrease of 27%.
The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out October 12th.